As Political Islam is being erased from the Middle East landscape, what comes next?

Abstract

Political Islam -- in the form of the doctrine of Wahhabism, the ideology of the Muslim

Brotherhood and the transnational violence of jihadi groups – has dominated Middle East

politics for over four decades. In recent years, its influence appears to be receding. In Saudi

Arabia, the fountainhead of Wahhabism, the present leadership headed by Crown Prince

Mohammed bin Salman has begun to downplay the place of Wahhabism in the narrative of

state-formation and in terms of its influence in the contemporary political order. It is being

replaced by a new focus on “nationalism”, largely conflated with the persona of the crown

prince himself.

The Muslim Brotherhood has received hammer-blows in all the states where it had appeared

influential after the Arab Spring uprisings – Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. Its senior

leadership in Egypt has now either been executed or incarcerated or is in exile, mainly in

Qatar and Turkey. These setbacks have led to considerable introspection among its cadres,

many of whom have begun to question the continued relevance of linking their agenda for

political reform with Islam. Radical Islam in its transnational expressions, as manifested by

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, has been militarily defeated and deprived of secure bases. It

is today confined to certain spaces in sub-Saharan Africa or manifests itself through sporadic

“lone-wolf” attacks.

This retreat of political Islam has opened the doors for “Post-Islamism” – this does not

abandon Islam’s influence on the shaping of the political order, but prioritises freedom,

rights and democracy over faith. This paper argues that, while the existing state order in the

Middle East remains authoritarian and actively hostile to demands for political reform,

resistance to domestic tyranny and foreign interference in national affairs, that has

consistently defined contemporary political activism, will persist despite the ruthless power

of the state.